By Andrew DeMillo

LITTLE ROCK—Supporters and opponents of a proposal to create a state-run lottery in Arkansas are both obsessed with finding their own winning numbers.

Throwing out more than enough numbers to put on a Powerball ticket, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and a nonprofit group sparred Wednesday on how much Halter’s proposed lottery would bring to Arkansas.

Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families released a study that said a lottery would bring $61.5 million in revenue to the state—less than the $100 million annually Halter has predicted.

“It’s not a fair and effective way for raising revenue,” said Ginny Blankenship, the group’s research and fiscal policy director. “It functions as a regressive tax that transfers wealth from low-income families to higher-income families.”

The non-profit group, which has opposed past efforts to introduce a lottery to the state, said its estimate is closer to the $55 million annual estimate once provided by the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration.

The Arkansas Advocates report estimated that the state would see $213.4 million in ticket sales, but most of the money would go toward prizes, advertising and administration. The group said that the lottery would be an unstable source of revenue that would rely disproportionately on the low-income for its sales.

Halter has until July 7 to submit enough signatures to place his proposed constitutional amendment creating a lottery to fund college scholarships on the November ballot. Halter has said he’s already gathered more than the 77,468 signatures required.

Hours after the study downplaying the lottery’s potential effects was released, Halter’s lottery campaign released a study detailing the $100 million figure he estimated will be raised for college scholarships.

The study said the figure is based on net lottery proceeds for each surrounding state on a per capita basis, calculating the per capita average for all surrounding states and multiplying that per capita average by Arkansas’ population.

The Hope for Arkansas lottery campaign said in the study that the calculation yielded an estimate of nearly $120 million for college scholarships, but said the campaign lowered its predictions to be more conservative.

The $100 million figure touted by Halter is lower than the up to $250 million he once said a lottery could bring the state. When he ran briefly for governor in 2006, Halter said that figure was based on lottery revenue in Georgia, which uses a lottery to pay for a college scholarship program. Halter said the figure reflected money after administrative costs and prizes.

When asked Wednesday about the $250 million figure, Halter spokesman Bud Jackson said that “previous estimates are not relevant and current.”

The flaw in both studies is that most of the details on the lottery won’t be decided even if voters approved the proposed constitutional amendment. Legislators next year would have to work out details on types of games and other conditions.

That uncertainty prompted Attorney General Dustin McDaniel last year to say he was concerned that the proposed constitutional amendment could allow for the introduction of video lottery terminals similar to slot machines.

McDaniel, who certified the language of Halter’s lottery proposal, and Gov. Mike Beebe have both said they’re undecided on whether they support the lottery.