Arkansas' deep red shift poses new questions

L

ITTLE ROCK-If it wasn't already clear, Tuesday night sealed it: Arkansas is no longer Clinton country.

No one expected Hillary Clinton to win the six electoral votes in the state where she lived for many years and served as first lady, but her performance in the presidential election highlighted just how much Arkansas has shifted to the right since she and former President Bill Clinton left the White House. The Democratic nominee won less than 34 percent of the vote in her former adopted home state in her upset loss to Donald Trump, faring worse than President Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.

Her loss came as Sen. John Boozman became the first Republican in the state to win re-election to the U.S. Senate, and the GOP expanded its majorities in the state House and Senate. None of these results dramatically changed a once reliably Democratic state that's turned red, but they were an exclamation point on just how dramatic that shift has become.

Here's a look at the challenges and questions facing the state after Tuesday's election:

 

IS THERE A WAY
BACK FOR DEMOCRATS?

The chairman of the state Democratic Party said heading into the election that a home run would have been the party maintaining its seats in the House and Senate. Instead, the party lost seats in both chambers and a Democratic state representative announced he was switching to the Republican Party in the election's wake. Clinton's poor performance in a state she once called home and where she still has deep ties showed just how difficult it'll be for Democrats to run in the state in the future. The challenge was also clear for Democratic Senate hopeful Conner Eldridge, who has been mentioned as a possible candidate for statewide office again in two years after his loss to Boozman. Eldridge won a little over 36 percent of the vote, faring slightly better than Clinton but worse than former Sen. Mark Pryor did during his unsuccessful re-election bid two years ago. The good news for Democrats is that the 2018 election may offer them a chance to run in less nationalized races such as legislative seats and constitutional offices.

 

GROWING PAINS FOR GOP

The GOP expanded its majority in both chambers of the Legislature, but that's likely to be accompanied by more headaches and infighting. Trump's election raises the likelihood that the president's health care law will be repealed or dramatically scaled back. Even though it'll take time for that to happen in Washington, the possibility of the overhaul's repeal will overshadow the annual fight in the Legislature among Republicans over the future of the state's hybrid Medicaid expansion and the more than 300,000 people on it. Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson is also likely to face pushback from some within his party over his proposal to cut taxes by $50 million in two years, with some GOP lawmakers eyeing deeper cuts. A new unknown in that fact is the House Revenue and Taxation Committee, where Democrats were able to claim a majority of seats last week despite Tuesday's losses.

 

BIBLE BELT POT PIONEERS

Voters' approval of a constitutional amendment legalizing medical marijuana showed the state can still offer some surprises. The vote made Arkansas the first Bible Belt state to legalize the drug, and its support came from Trump and Clinton-backed counties. The passage is being used by marijuana advocates to show that the drug has support in even deeply conservative parts of the country, and to urge Congress to take action on a national level. Just like voters' approval of an increase in the minimum wage two years ago in an election that gave Republicans control of statewide offices, the medical pot vote showed there are some issues that aren't easily defined by party lines. The next challenge will be for the state's top officials and lawmakers to launch a program that most of them had urged voters to reject.

 

ARKANSAS' CLOUT

Trump's victory could mean a higher clout nationally for Arkansas. Even though Trump wasn't their first choice, the state's top Republican officials had spoken out in favor of the billionaire throughout his presidential campaign and there's speculation they could be rewarded with posts in the administration. Hutchinson, who has been mentioned as a potential pick for attorney general, has laughed off such talk and said he wouldn't consider serving in the Trump cabinet. Other top GOP officials to watch in the coming months include Attorney General Leslie Rutledge and U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, both of whom spoke at the Republican National Convention and have enjoyed higher national profiles.

 

Andrew DeMillo has covered Arkansas government and politics for The Associated Press since 2005.

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