One hundred days, as arbitrary as that number may be, have traditionally constituted the first grading period for a new president. President Donald Trump's 100th day may well be day one of a government failure.
That's because the 99th day of his presidency also is the legislative deadline for a new federal government spending plan. This calendar confluence was set in motion in December when the House and Senate failed to agree on a new budget. They did agree to keep funding government activities through April 28.
So, in the week ahead, Congress has until Friday to decide if it will continue to pay for government activities. Without a deal, thousands of government workers will be furloughed, and government contractors won't get paid. Essential government services will continue, but the financial disruption caused by even a partial government shutdown threatens the cash flow for millions of Americans who have bills to pay.
Like all government showdowns over spending, this is not about the cost of borrowing. Even as the Federal Reserve has raised its target interest rate, it is historically cheap for the government to borrow money - and it needs to. Uncle Sam hit his credit limit more than a month ago. Through accounting maneuvers, the U.S. has managed to continue issuing bonds to pay its bills.
This is about politics. Two specific issues could gum up any compromise. The first is President Trump's long-promised wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Senate Democrats have warned any wall money is a nonstarter. However, Republicans may be backing off efforts to include a down payment on the wall in a new spending measure. Second, the president has suggested he may not support continuing to fund subsidies that pay for health insurance for millions of people under the Affordable Care Act. More than 80 percent of ACA enrollees use the subsidies to lower their monthly insurance premiums. Not surprisingly, insurance companies want them to continue.
While the politicians are posturing, investors are left to not only price in the immediate risk of a government shutdown, but also the costs of continuing legislative conflict.
ABOUT THE WRITER
Financial journalist Tom Hudson hosts "The Sunshine Economy" on WLRN-FM in Miami, where he is the vice president of news. He is the former co-anchor and managing editor of "Nightly Business Report" on public television. Follow him on Twitter HudsonsView.