GOP has work to do on signature campaign promises

The November election gave the congressional Republican majority an unexpected bonus: a president prepared to help enact its long-standing conservative agenda of lowering taxes and repealing Obamacare.

Despite continued optimistic statements from top Republican congressional leaders, the turbulence surrounding the Trump administration has so far kept it from providing the guidance that would have enabled GOP lawmakers to make the quick start they pledged to enact the complex measures on their agenda.

On both tax reform and health care, sharp divisions have arisen within the Republican majorities-and between the House and the Senate-that could complicate the effort to redeem those signature campaign promises.

Some Republicans have expressed concern their constituents might suffer if the Affordable Care Act is repealed before lawmakers agree on a replacement. President Donald Trump's promise that any replacement will give more Americans better coverage at lower cost may prove as impossible to achieve as past pledges to simultaneously cut taxes, increase defense spending and balance the budget.

The legislative outline House GOP leaders presented their members before this week's recess could force states to cut Obamacare's expanded Medicaid benefits for millions. One early GOP goal is repealing the taxes that financed the Affordable Care Act, but Republicans have not agreed on how to finance such provisions as benefits for the millions with pre-existing medical conditions.

In addition, basic differences remain between the GOP's conservative House base, which wants to repeal the Obama health care plan immediately, and some Senate Republicans, who fear political problems in the 2018 mid-term elections unless repeal is accompanied by simultaneous replacement legislation.

Sharp differences also exist on proposed tax reform legislation. House leaders favor Trump's proposal to tax imports. But GOP senators resisted House Speaker Paul Ryan's effort to sell that concept.

GOP leaders are pushing ahead with legislation in both areas, but they need help from the new administration. With key Cabinet members just getting confirmed and the president preoccupied by other issues, the White House is just starting to provide guidance on how it wants lawmakers to proceed.

Lawmakers will presumably be watching closely next week, when Trump is scheduled to outline his legislative program before a joint session of Congress. But the GOP's minimal 52-48 Senate majority will require maximum cooperation between the two branches-and the administration-to ensure enactment of what will inevitably be complex legislation.

In 2009, it took an all-out effort by the Obama administration and Democratic congressional unity to enact the economic stimulus bill, the Dodd-Frank securities regulation measure and Obamacare.

Such unity has generally been necessary in those rare moments when political circumstances combined to give one of the two parties sufficient control of both the White House and Congress to enact major legislation: the Democrats' Great Society era of 1965-66 and the Obama majorities of 2009, and the GOP's successes in the first year of the Reagan administration and the onset of George W. Bush's presidency.

History also tells us such opportunities don't last long. Despite enormous Democratic majorities (295-140 in the House and 68-32 in the Senate) President Lyndon Johnson's ability to pass legislation began to erode even before the historic 89th Congress ended.

And even after Bush won re-election in 2004 and Republicans retained the House and Senate, the GOP majorities resisted his appeal to enact a controversial Social Security privatization proposal.

This time, Republicans may benefit from differences in the political terrain. Because most GOP House members represent such heavily Republican districts, they may be less susceptible to the pressure they are facing this week from groups warning against Obamacare repeal. In addition, most GOP senators facing re-election in 2018 come from states Trump carried in 2016.

Still, members of Congress are notoriously jittery about the consequences of backing controversial legislation, so continuation of Trump's historically low approval numbers could make some less eager to cast potentially damaging votes.

Trump and the GOP may still be able to enact a major tax cut bill and make significant changes in Obamacare, though perhaps something less than outright repeal. But the clock is ticking, and pressure on them is increasing.

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