Will shoppers follow sales tax savings?

And while they may want to do the right thing, the community-minded thing, trying to control household expenses will make loyalty difficult.

Come Jan. 1, Arkansas-side residents will see their grocery bills jump 7 percent because the city has lost a longtime sales tax exemption. They will also see energy costs climb 10 percent for the same reason.

Groceries, heating and cooling make up significant parts of the average household budget. These costs were on the rise even before these tax rates were announced. When they are implemented, they will not be absorbed into the family budget without notice. They will be felt.

City officials hope residents will continue to shop at Arkansas-side stores out of habit or a sense of loyalty to that side of town. They need those tax dollars to maintain services.

They may be in for a rude awakening.

While some people may act out of loyalty, that idea flies against human nature and established buying trends.

People buy where costs are lower. Thats why the Wal-Marts of the world thrive as retailers even though such business models continues to force American jobs overseas.

People are driven by low prices. They are sold on good deals, even when doing so flies in the face of a greater good.

People who are mobile will travel to save the dollars. Maybe not for a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk in a pinch we also value convenience but when it comes to laying out a hundred bucks to feed a family, driving a couple of extra miles will be worth the savings.

It also should be noted that Texarkana is a regional shopping hub. Were not just talking about where Texarkana, Ark., or Texarkana, Tex., residents will be shopping. Many households drive in from the region to stock up at our big grocery outlets. They make substantial contributions to the local economy. Do you think when they get a taste of the local sales tax they wont veer west and pick another grocer?

Same goes for residents on the Texas side of town. Many of them have shopped the Arkansas stores because they were nearer and competitively priced. The nearer wont change, the competitive pricing will. Seven percent is a lot to tack on to a grocery bill.

There are four major grocery outlets on the two major highways that cut through and around the Texas side of town. Out-of-town shoppers can hit Texarkana from the South, West and North and not have to make major detours to avoid the tax and find the savings they seek.

From a company perspective, while it is scary to see business move across town, it could be worse. Almost all the grocery stores on the Arkansas side of town have counterparts on the Texas side of town. Consumers can shop the same stores; the money stays with the same companies.

And, for the most part, sales and specials that are good at one location will be good at a sister location. Its difficult for companies that market nationally and regionally to provide incentives that arent inclusive to all their stores.

That doesnt give Arkansas-side stores many options for combating the tax increase their customers will see added to the bottom of their receipts.

Keeping the money in-company also doesnt help or protect the individual stores that provide jobs and add to the tax base, and it doesnt help the city if the tax base slumps because fewer sales mean lower tax revenues.

But people dont ponder these things when they make buying decisions. They look for the deals. They look to increase or maintain purchasing power. They dont think about filling police vacancies or potholes when they go to the store.

They probably should, but they dont.

The people who continue to shop these stores likely will be those who have few choices, who are uninformed or who choose convenience over savings. In a time-strapped world, that last category might make up a bigger portion than you imagine.

If it does, the fallout might be manageable. If it doesnt, the differences between the two sides of town will be even more measurable.

The people that are least likely to seek escape from these taxes are those who are home- or neighborhood-bound. Unfortunately, their impact would seem to be less than those who are mobile and have the means to avoid the tax.

How residents will respond to the 10 percent sales tax on energy is a different story. People can get in their cars to find a 7-percent solution on groceries. But people dont give up homes so quickly. There are financial and emotional investments involved.

It might figure into the thinking of newcomers, buyers seeking first homes and people already in the market to move. But probably not heavily. There are other, more compelling factors.

Mostly it will just make entrenched homeowners and renters mad when they see the tax on their utility bills.

The Arkansas side still has some advantages, most notably lower property taxes. For many people, that will help mitigate the additional energy cost.

But initially, these two taxes will feel like a combination punch to taxpayers.

They will squeeze something out of their budgets to make room for the new expenses. It will not be easy but they will do it, just like they have done it for higher energy costs and pump prices.

Eventually they will make it all fit. Not perfectly. Not without pain and grumbling.

And in a few years it will no longer be so big a deal. It will just be the way it is another point to consider, another expense to absorb or avoid when navigating this peculiar two-sided townscape.