FORT WORTH, Texas—TCU will win its first round game but is unlikely to move past the second round of the NCAA Tournament, according to FiveThirtyEight's NCAA win probability bracket. The site uses forecasting models to calculate each team's chances of reaching each round.
The oddity of the ESPN-owned website's predictions, however, is that it still has the Horned Frogs as the fourth-best bet in the Midwest Region to win it all, albeit only a microscopic chance. The sixth-seeded Frogs are given a 0.4 percent chance of the winning the NCAA championship, just a tick better than 4th-seed Auburn and 5th-seed Clemson.
TCU (21-11) is given a 57 percent chance of winning its first game against either Arizona State or Syracuse, who meet in a play-in game Wednesday night. That's lower than No. 7 Rhode Island (58 percent) and No. 8 Seton Hall (63 percent) to reach the Sweet 16.
The Frogs are given a 14 percent chance to reach the Sweet 16, a five percent chance to reach the Elite 8 and a two percent chance to reach the Final Four.
Two No. 1 seeds Virginia and Villanova are given an 18 and 17 percent chance to win the title. The other top seeds, Kansas and Xavier, are given a five and three percent chance for a championship.
No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Michigan State, both in the Midwest Region (TCU's region), are given better odds than the top seeded Jayhawks. The Blue Devils are given a 10 percent chance and the Spartans are given a six percent chance.
No. 3 Texas Tech (in the East) and No. 6 Houston (in the West) are both given a one percent chance to win the title, the best hope for a Texas team, according to FiveThirtyEight.