Dec. 1 is the first day of meteorological winter, and so far, it looks like this winter could be a wet one.
"We have already had a lot of rain, and it appears it's going to be wetter than normal," said Davyon Hill, meteorologist for National Weather Service in Shreveport, La. Meteorological winter includes the months of December, January and February.
Winter 2018-19 could bring above-average temperatures to the northern and western United States, and it's likely that parts of the South and East will see wetter-than-average conditions, according to an outlook released recently by NOAA.
A weak El Nio event is expected to develop this winter, and that could have some influence on large-scale weather patterns. Last week, NOAA said there's a 70 to 75 percent chance of El Nio forming later this fall and lasting through winter 2018-19.
El Nio, the periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can shift weather patterns over a period of months, bringing the possibility of more sustained warm, cold, wet or dry weather in parts of the world.
Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been running above average recently, which is why NOAA is forecasting the potential for weak El Nio conditions to develop later this fall or winter.
When El Nio conditions develop, this can alter the jet stream pattern over the U.S., and this is particularly noticeable in the winter.
Temperatures are expected to be about normal or slightly above normal, Hill said. So most precipitation will probably be just rain.
"Average temperatures and above normal precipitation," he said. "However, one or two degrees can make a big difference in whether it's rain or snow."
He said this area gets one or two winter events on average.
"Winter weather is very difficult to predict around here," Hill said. "There is not a lot of snow but if you get a two inch snow storm you have already beat the average."
Hill advises that residents stay updated as winter weather develops.
"Pay attention to the weather and to local media. Keep your eyes to the sky," he said.
The first week of December is forecast to be mild and rainy. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50s with lows in the mid-30s.