On a Friday night without high school football, more than 500 residents braved the Frisco rain for a political rally headlined by Texas' Gov. Greg Abbott.
Many had the border crisis in mind.
"I can't believe that I'm seeing thousands and thousands of invaders coming into our country illegally with no background checks, no vetting," said David Button, a Plano retiree who used to work in architecture. "Biden is doing nothing, but Greg Abbott is stepping up and doing something about it. I came here to thank him."
Abbott's highly publicized clash with President Joe Biden on border security and immigration policy is a boon for Republicans, and GOP candidates will continue pounding the issues heading toward the March 5 Texas primary.
Democrats know they can't make gains in Texas if the political conversation is dominated by border security and negative opinions of Biden's job performance. They're hoping to pivot toward issues of reproductive rights, health care and saving American democracy.
These issues resonate with reliable Democratic voters, and party leaders hope they can shift the electorate's attention away from the border.
Weeks before primary elections that will set the matchups for the November general election, Democrats and Republicans are honing their messages to voters on the local and national level.
Among Republicans, border security is a top issue, along with regulating the activities of transgender residents, restricting Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs and promoting parental rights in schools.
In past election cycles, the popularity of border security was largely confined to Republican base voters. The media accounts of disorder at the southern border during this election season are not only rallying Republicans, they're causing a larger audience to take notice. Even some Democrats have been pushing Biden to find solutions.
With Republicans in firm control of Texas, the uproar over border security could prevent Democratic candidates from luring crossover GOP voters.
Democrats want to reset the discussion because they can't make gains in Texas if the political conversation is dominated by border security and the current view of Biden's job performance.
Instead of allowing Republicans to dictate their talking points, they want to discuss issues like women's reproductive rights, health care and saving American democracy.
These issues resonate with reliable Democratic Party voters.
"Democrats and progressives wanting to win in 2024 must lead the conversation on the economy, our freedoms and democracy," said Kathleen Thompson, executive director of a progressive group called Progress Texas.
Texas Democrats have had success electing candidates on a single issue important to voters.
In 2018, Democrats netted 12 seats in the Texas House and flipped two congressional districts. Ten of those House seats were in North Texas. Democrats Colin Allred of Dallas and Lizzie Fletcher of Houston won the congressional seats.
The primary issue for Democrats in 2018 was health care. Republicans backed then-President Donald Trump's vow to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and citizens flooded town hall meetings across the state to express displeasure.
Though it's typical for the party in power to lose ground in midterm elections, the health care issue helped move voters toward Democrats.
Texas Democrats have been unable to duplicate that success.
This time, strategists believe Texas' restrictive abortion laws could limit support for Republican candidates.
Kate Cox, who lives in the Dallas area, was the first woman to sue the state for permission to end her pregnancy after the Supreme Court overturned 50 years of precedent granting a constitutional right to an abortion. She said doctors recommended an abortion to protect her health and future fertility.
Cox traveled out of state after the Texas Supreme Court blocked her attempt to terminate the nonviable pregnancy.
In an effort to put a spotlight on the abortion rights fight, Cox will be First Lady Jill Biden's guest at this year's State of the Union address.
One Democrat says abortion rights will trump border security with many voters.
"The crisis at the border is a real crisis, and the Republicans need to figure out how to partner with Biden and Democrats in Washington and do something about it," said Lisa Turner, state director of the Democratic research group called the Lone Star Project. "But what voters are seeing over and over are women who are fleeing this state to access life-saving reproductive health care, and that is affecting families in Texas."
To date, however, abortion has not been an effective issue for Texas Democrats.
Former state senator Wendy Davis rose in popularity in 2014 when she staged a filibuster to stall abortion restrictions. Later that year, Abbott beat her by 20 percentage points to become governor.
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down national abortion rights in June 2022, but when the general election was held five months later, Republicans easily maintained control of the Texas Legislature and all executive offices.
What's different now?
Turner said the harm Texas abortion law is causing wasn't forcefully put before voters in 2022 and the experiences of Cox and others show the urgency of the situation.
"Every single day this draconian abortion ban that Republicans put in place is literally harming women," she said. "That is going to be an issue, and it's an issue that Republicans do not want to talk about."
No matter what happens with abortion rights, the strongest issue for Republicans has been border security. Abbott has kept the crisis in the news by busing migrants to Democratic-run cities like New York, Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia. Federal authorities have sued him to remove barriers from the Rio Grande designed to prevent illegal crossings. The Justice Department is also suing Texas over a law that allows local authorities to arrest people suspected of being in the country illegally.
Abbott on Friday regaled a large crowd at a Frisco rally for House Republican incumbent Matt Shaheen.
"We are continuing the fight," he said. "We will not back down for Joe Biden."
Coupled with Biden's unpopularity, the border security issue connects Republican candidates with many voters upset with Biden's immigration policies. Real Clear Politics' polls average shows Biden's approval rating at 41%. A University of Houston poll released last week had Biden's approval rating at 39% in Texas.
That poll also had Trump beating Biden by 9 percentage points.
"It's a killer," said Republican strategist Dave Carney of Biden's approval rating. "Biden is a millstone."
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas, so it's unlikely the president will invest time and resources trying to win the red state.
Democrats hope Biden can hold his own at the top of the ticket in battleground areas like Tarrant County, which he won over Trump in 2020.
Carney says Democrats who could be near the top of the ticket are running away from Biden.
"Unless it's AI, you will never see a picture of Allred and Biden together," Carney said.
Turner called Carney's charge that Biden is an albatross "ridiculous."
She said Trump is under indictment for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, adding that he has already told supporters he wanted to be a dictator on his first day as president.
"This election is about whether or not we get to have any more elections," she said. "Biden is the one leading the fight."
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