TEXARKANA - Texarkana and several regional cities are among 144 cities that the federal government is considering downgrading from Metropolitan Statistical Area status. Other cities in the region that could see their status removed include Hot Springs and Pine Bluff in Arkansas and Longview in Texas.
Jonesboro in the far corner of Northeast Arkansas is also being considered for this downgrading.
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Officials in Texarkana and other cities are worried such a turn might have negative effects on getting federal funding and economical development for these important hubs.
"Obviously this is something we don't want to happen," said Robb Sitterley, president and CEO of AR-TX REDI, an economic development organization here. "It would make it more difficult to recruit companies."
Sitterley was reached by the Gazette late Saturday night.
Under the new proposal, a metro area would have to have at least 100,000 people in its core city to count as an MSA, double the 50,000-person threshold that has been in place for the past 70 years. Cities formerly designated as metros with core populations between 50,000 and 100,000 people, like Bismarck and Sheboygan, would be changed to "micropolitan" statistical areas instead.
That is the status Texarkana would get if this recommendation by the Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Standards Review Committee gets adopted. It lists Texarkana's MSA as 78,162.
Several online business sites, including the Association of Arkansas Development Organizations list Texarkana's MSA population as roughly between 134,000 and 150,000.
Where this Committee makes its distinction, is that it only weighs the city population and doesn't consider the whole MSA.
"Where we fall out is in the urban core," said Sitterley. "That's where we are struggling to meet the numbers."
Sitterley said Mike Malone, who heads the Texarkana Regional Chamber of Commerce, is leading an effort to fight the downsizing of Texarkana's designation.
"Mike Malone is trying to save our designation," said Sitterley. "There is a letter writing campaign to make our message very clear. We are one of 44 different states that are fighting this. Thankfully, we are not the lone voice in all in this. It would be harder for us."
The Gazette was not able to reach Malone Saturday night for comment.
A committee of representatives from federal statistical agencies recently made the recommendations to the Office of Management and Budget, saying it's purely for statistical purposes and not to be used for funding formulas.
As a practical matter, however, that is how it's often used.
Several housing, transportation and Medicare reimbursement programs are tied to communities being metropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs, so the designation change concerns some city officials.
Rural communities are concerned that more micropolitan areas would increase competition for federal funding targeting rural areas. The change would downgrade more than a third of the current 392 MSAs.
Statisticians say the change in designations has been a long time coming, given that the U.S. population has more than doubled since 1950. Back then, about half of U.S. residents lived in metros; now, 86% do.
"Back in the 1950s, the population it took to create a metro area is different than it would be to create a metro area in 2020," said Rob Santos, president of the American Statistical Association.
Nancy Potok, a former chief statistician of the Office of Management and Budget who helped develop the new recommendations, acknowledged that officials in some cities will be upset with the changes because they believe it could hurt efforts to lure jobs or companies to their communities.
"There are winners and losers when you change these designations," Potok said. "A typical complaint comes from economic development when you are trying to attract investments. You want to say you are part of a dynamic MSA. There's a perception associated with it. If your area gets dumped out of an MSA, then you feel disadvantaged."
Officials in some cities said they needed to research the impact of the change. Others were surprised to find their metro was on the list in the first place.
In a separate proposal, the U.S. Census Bureau is considering a change to the definition of an urban area. The proposal made public last month would use housing instead of people for distinguishing urban from rural. An area will be considered urban if it has 385 housing units per square mile, roughly the equivalent of 1,000 people per square mile, under the new proposal. The current standard is 500 people per square mile.
The Census Bureau says the changes are needed to comply with new privacy requirements that aim to prevent people from being identified through publicly released data and it offers a more direct measure of density.
Some demographers aren't sold on the idea of changing the definition of a metro area.
"It seems like everything is ad hoc, rather than having been determined by serious research," said Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire. "The definitions have been relatively stable since 1950. All of the sudden, they change these, and at least in my mind, there isn't a compelling research-based process that has driven this decision."